Project Seminars

Managing With Parkinson’s Law

Another consideration when it comes to creating estimates is Parkinson's Law. Parkinson's Law states that work will expand to fill the amount of time it is allotted. Here's an example: you, the project manager, are working with your project team to determine how long each activity will take to complete. Suzie knows that an assignment she'll be completing for the project will probably take 32 hours to complete. Suzie, however, knows that there might be some problems, some snags, or some other delay, so she "pads" the duration estimate by eight hours and tells you it'll likely take her 40 hours to complete the assignment.

Guess what? It'll magically take 40 hours to complete the work. Suzie will either complete the work in 32 hours and not tell you she's done because she reported it'll take 40 hours or she'll ease through the work and use all 40 hours to complete the 32-hour assignment. Another possibility is that Suzie won't start on the actual work until hour eight and she'll pray and hope nothing goes awry in the assignment. The worst possible scenario is that she'll wait until hour eight to begin, things do go awry, and she'll require more than the allotted 40 hours for the work.

There are multiple strategies to combat Parkinson's Law, one of which is the three-point estimate. Another approach is to use a "management reserve" which is a pool of time that all activities may borrow from should their activities go over the allotted completion time. In other words, if a project is estimated to take ten months to complete the project manager will allot approximately 15% additional time for management reserve. The project will, in this instance, take eleven and a half months to complete. As activities are late the time is subtracted from the management reserve. To use management reserve, however, the project manager and the project team must agree to be accurate and as honest as possible when estimating how long activities may take to complete.

Using Management Reserve

Sometimes it's darn near impossible to use management reserve – or to provide an accurate time estimate. This is true if a project of this nature has never been attempted before. When a project has never been attempted before it's called "The First-Time First-Use Penalty." If you've never tried to use a particular type of material, create a particular type of software, or install a new appliance you likely won't know how long it'll take to complete the work until you actually get in and complete the work. It's kind of like the first person that decided to eat a snail – he didn't know they were tasty until he ate one.

Real World Note: The First-Time First-Use Penalty is one of the reasons why it's critical to future project success to keep a lessons learned document and accurate project records of actual time and costs to complete the project work. You're creating future historical information so other projects can glean from your experience.

Estimating Time and Project Resources

Once the WBS has been created the project manager and the project team can begin to create an estimate of how long the project work will actually take and what resources are required to complete the project work. Resources are generally thought of as people and the roles they play within a project (think network engineer, mechanical engineer, and architect). Resources, however, are also things like materials, equipment, and facilities that the project needs in order to be successful.

When the project manager first begins to estimate the duration of the project she should always look for historical information. If a project of this type has been completed before historical information will be the best input to the project duration estimating process. This approach is also known as analogous estimating – where the project manager is creating an analogy between the two projects. When using an analogous estimate the projects don't, and often won't, be identical. It's an estimate based on projects that have completed in the past.

Real World Note: An analogous estimate is also known as top-down estimating. It's not a very reliable estimate, but it's a quick way to estimate the project duration.

Creating the WBS III

Along with the WBS you'll create a companion document called the WBS Dictionary. The WBS Dictionary is a document that defines all of the details for each of work packages. It defines what the work package is, the owner of the work, contract information (if warranted), technical references, and cost information for each work package. The project scope statement, the WBS, and the WBS dictionary all serve as the project's scope baseline.

The approach that I've outlined here is the most common – deliverables are decomposed into smaller deliverables down to the work packages. There is, however, another approach which is just as acceptable – to decompose the phases of the projects into the work packages. For example, an IT project may have identified phases such as requirements gathering, development, testing, training, and roll-out. A project team could elect to decompose the project by these phases rather than by the major deliverables of the project. In either method the project manager will be using the WBS throughout the project. The WBS is needed in order to do five key project management activities:

• Cost estimating – the prediction of how much the project will cost
• Cost budgeting – the actual allotment of monies to create the project deliverables
• Resource planning – the determination of what materials and labor will be needed to create the project deliverables
• Risk management planning – the identification of project risks and how the risks will be managed
• Activity definition – the activity list is created as a result of the WBS

Creating the WBS II

The process of decomposing the project scope begins with the high-level project deliverables: such as the project management deliverables, the foundation, the framing, and so. Then each top tier deliverable is decomposed again and again until you've reached the smallest level of deliverables – the work packages. Here's a tip: you know that you have decomposed the project deliverables deep enough by using the 8/80 Rule. The 8/80 Rule means that each work package can be completed with not less than 8 hours of labor and not more than 80 hours of labor.

Just as each project scope statement is unique so too must each WBS be unique. Having said that, it is acceptable to use a WBS from a previous similar project and adapt it to your current project as a WBS template. Some organizations have a consistent level of deliverables with all of their projects so they use a pre-populated template to reflect these "every project" deliverables. For example, you might create a template that reflects your project management plans, quality control charts, and expected reports that the project will generate.

The numbering system is known as a code of accounts. Each WBS deliverable is identified and can be tracked by time, cost, and other metrics using the code of accounts. The code of accounts can also help facilitate communication between the project manager and the project team. Imagine trying to identify which bedroom a contract is discussing in a four-bedroom home construction project. The WBS code of accounts can point all parties to the exact deliverable using the numbering system for each component.