Sometimes it's darn near impossible to use management reserve – or to provide an accurate time estimate. This is true if a project of this nature has never been attempted before. When a project has never been attempted before it's called "The First-Time First-Use Penalty." If you've never tried to use a particular type of material, create a particular type of software, or install a new appliance you likely won't know how long it'll take to complete the work until you actually get in and complete the work. It's kind of like the first person that decided to eat a snail – he didn't know they were tasty until he ate one.
Real World Note: The First-Time First-Use Penalty is one of the reasons why it's critical to future project success to keep a lessons learned document and accurate project records of actual time and costs to complete the project work. You're creating future historical information so other projects can glean from your experience.
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